The Hillary Factor

In a swing state like New Mexico where Al Gore won by just 366 votes in 2000 and Bush won by 5,988 votes in 2004 (all out of a possible electorate of just under a million), the last thing the Democratic Party needed here was a dogged caucus campaign which divided battle lines amongst its core supporters.

In New Mexico, Democrats were very evenly divided between Hillary and Obama during the primary season. The Clintons' historic support amongst Hispnics, which constitute a large part of the population here, gave Hillary an edge of 1,709 votes over her rival or just under 1% of the Democratic electorate.

Amongst the many calls I have been making here to registered Democrats seeking support, there has been a sizeable cohort of people who are still bitter at the fact that Hillary lost her presidential bid to Obama. Based on anecdotal evidence, these people tend to be for the most part older, white or Hispanic and more often than not female. That would seem to reinforce the exit polls done across the country after the primaries.

This of course is not helped by Hillary's luke warm support of Obama's campaign. Both she and Bill will speak separately at the Democratic Convention in Denver at the end of the month in what some have crtiticised as a ploy to take some of the limelight from Obama. Her die-hard fans have even signed a petition to call for a floor vote at the convention which aims to show the massive support Hillary did get despite losing. Some crazed Hillaryites have even told me over the phone that they firmly believe Hillary can still clinch the nomination at the convention!

Whether these people will end up voting for Obama or not is unclear. For the time being, the campaign is more concerned with reaching out to people who have been apathetic towards politics and politicians in recent years. If they can boost voter turnout amongst a demographic which rarely votes, the possibilities are endless. Alienating the die-hard Hillaryites may be a mistake though. Only time will tell if the strategy pays off.